The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis - Softcover

This report is the final product of a project entitled "Prospects for theEmergence of Peer Competitors." The project was intended toimprove the understanding of Army intelligence analysts of thepotential for the rise of a peer competitor to the United States and toconstruct a framework for thinking systematically about the emer-genceof such a competitor.The report starts out by defining "peer competitor," and then buildsa framework for thinking about an emergence of a peer competitor,focusing on two main elements. One element consists of the path-waysthat a proto-peer could possibly take to evolve into a peer andperhaps a competitor. The other element consists of an overview ofthe strategies available to the dominant state (the hegemon) tocounter the rise of a peer. The interaction of the two, representedanalytically by way of a game-theoretic interaction of the decision-makingrationales, can lead to an outcome ranging anywhere fromaccommodation to rivalry. The report then exercises the dynamicsof the framework by using exploratory modeling techniques. Themodeling effort presented here is more a reasoning than a forecast-ingtool, but it could be further developed into an operational tool insupport of intelligence analysis and decisionmaking.The intended audience for this report is the intelligence community,though analysts and scholars involved in long-term futures assess-mentsalso should find it of interest.The research was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelli-gence,U.S. Army, and was conducted in the Strategy, Doctrine, andResources Program of RAND Arroyo Center. The Arroyo Center is afederally funded research and development center sponsored by theUnited States Army.For comments and further information, please contact the projectleaders, Daniel Byman (byman@rand.org) and Thomas Szayna(szayna@rand.org).

THOMAS S. SZAYNA (Ph.D., Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles) is the associate director of the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program, Arroyo Center, at RAND. His research includes strategic planning, NATO military force structure and planning, intra-state conflict, peace operations, and democratization and civil-military relations.

Daniel L. Byman (Ph.D., political science, M.I.T.) is a policy analyst at RAND whose research interests include modeling ethnic conflict, assessing Middle East politics and security issues, developing countermeasures against terrorism, reevaluating air power theory, and other general issues related to U.S. foreign policy.

DEREK EATON (Ph.D. University of Chicago, Political Science, August 1998) is a consultant at RAND.

Robert E. Mullins (King's College, University of London, London, England Doctor of Philosophy in War Studies received, October 2000) is an associate social scientist at RAND.

IAN O. LESSER (D. Phil., International Politics, St. Antony's College, OxfordUniversity) is a Senior International Policy Analyst at RAND whose areas of expertise include U.S. foreign policy and strategic planning, NATO and Mediterranean affairs, grand strategy and economic security, and international terrorism.